I wrote up a big post for a forum somewhere, and I figure it couldn't hurt to post it here as well. Maybe someone will have something insightful to say? You never know.

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I'm looking to start playing in my first D&D 4E campaign this weekend, and I was looking through the books to try and get a feel for the play. This assumes you're trying your best to be as effective as possible, starting with the standard array (10,11,12,13,14,16). I'm also sticking to normal AC attacks for this, but special attacks mostly just have -2 to both sides of the equation.

The average monster in the manual has AC = Level+14

The average PC has the following bonuses to attack (against AC):
(Level/2) as the standard attack bonus that all PCs get;
(Level/5)+2 as the bonus from a weapon of the appropriate level (magical bonus + proficiency bonus);
(Level/8)+4 as the bonus from the stat upon which the attack is based, assuming you raise it at every opportunity.

The general comparison would be d20+(.825*Level)+6 vs. Level+14.

At level 1, the attack hits on 9 or better (d20+6 vs 15; 60% chance).
At 5, the attack hits on 11 or better (d20+9 vs 20; 50% chance).
At 10, the attack hits on 10 or better (d20+14 vs 24; 55% chance).
At 15, the attack hits on 12 or better (d20+17 vs 29; 45% chance).
At 20, the attack hits on 12 or better (d20+22 vs 34; 45% chance).
At 25, the attack hits on 13 or better (d20+26 vs 39; 40% chance).
At 30, the attack hits on 14 or better (d20+30 vs 44; 35% chance).

In summary, it gets harder to hit things as you get higher in level. If you are anything less than the best you can possibly be, you are going to have a very difficult time of things, but every little bit (fighter bonus, extra accurate powers, or combat advantage, for example) really does matter.

As for our defenses, it gets slightly more complicated. Here, I am assuming that you get new magical armor ever five levels.

The average monster has an attack bonus = Level+5.

The average rogue has the following bonuses to AC:
(Level/2)+10 base.
(Level/5)+2 (+1 if level>16) (+1 if level>26) as the bonus from armor.
(Level/8)+4 as the bonus from dexterity.



For the enemy to hit you, the comparison is similar to above, roll d20+level+5 vs. (Level*.825)+16(+1 if level>20)(+1 if level=30)

At level one, a rogue gets hit on 10 or better (d20+6 vs 16; 55% chance).
At 5, a rogue gets hit on 9 or better (d20+10 vs 19; 60% chance).
At 10, a rogue gets hit on 9 or better (d20+15 vs 24; 60% chance).
At 15, a rogue gets hit on 7 or better (d20+20 vs 27; 70% chance).
At 20, a rogue gets hit on 8 or better (d20+25 vs 33; 65% chance).
At 25, a rogue gets hit on 7 or better (d20+30 vs 37; 70% chance).
At 30, a rogue gets hit on 7 or better (d20+35 vs 42; 70% chance).

Wizards are 10% more likely to get hit, across the board, unless they have the stats to go for armor proficiency.
Warlocks are 5-10% more likely to get hit, because their AC stat is their secondary stat even though they have the leather.
Rangers are within 5% depending on whether they go melee or ranged, since that will determine whether Dexterity is their primary or secondary stat.
If you have a Defender to mark your enemies, your numbers improve by 10%.


For heavy armor wearers, the math is slightly simpler.

The average fighter has the following bonuses to AC:
(Level/2)+10 base.
(Level/5)+7 (+3 if level>16) (+3 if level>26) as the bonus from armor.

For the enemy to hit you, roll d20+level+5 vs. (Level*.7)+17(+3 if level>20)(+3 if level = 30).

At level one, a fighter gets hit on 11 or better (d20+6 vs 17; 50% chance).
At 5, a fighter gets hit on 10 or better (d20+10 vs 20; 55% chance).
At 10, a fighter gets hit on 9 or better (d20+15 vs 24; 60% chance).
At 15, a fighter gets hit on 7 or better (d20+20 vs 27; 70% chance).
At 20, a fighter gets hit on 9 or better (d20+25 vs 34; 60% chance).
At 25, a fighter gets hit on 7 or better (d20+30 vs 37; 70% chance).
At 30, a fighter gets hit on 9 or better (d20+35 vs 44; 60% chance).

Paladins, or fighters with plate proficiency, are +5% on all of these numbers.
Clerics and warlords are -5% on these numbers.
Using a shield gives an extra 5-10%, which is significant.
The advanced armors make a huge difference; going from +3 plate to +4 warplate increases your chance to not be hit by 20% with just the one item!

All in all, combat is looking pretty brutal in 4E. Luck plays a significant role, but it seems like it's impossible to get either an attack bonus or a defense value so high that the roll is unnecessary, which I can only see as an improvement, even if I'm uncomfortable knowing that every enemy of my level is a legitimate threat.
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